Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 20 at the 85

Carolina Panthers 3 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(3:24) 5-M.Palardy punts 53 yards to ATL 32, Center-44-J.Jansen. 14-J.Hardy to ATL 37 for 5 yards (53-B.Jacobs). PENALTY on ATL-29-J.Richards, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 35.

The Three Options

GO -3.46 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
74% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 85, worth -5.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model