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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 26

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(5:46) 3-M.Bryant 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.66 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model