4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 48

Atlanta Falcons 31 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(4:10) 5-M.Bosher punts 44 yards to CAR 4, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-28-J.Bethel.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.64 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -0.61 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model