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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 42

Atlanta Falcons 24 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 5-M.Bosher punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.42 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.07 EP
KICK -0.22 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP