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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 47

Carolina Panthers 10 – Atlanta Falcons 24

What Actually Happened

(5:43) 5-M.Palardy punts 37 yards to ATL 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.63 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 47, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -0.99 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 13, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model