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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 14 at the 68

Carolina Panthers 10 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 5-M.Palardy punts 53 yards to ATL 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-31-L.Doss. Penalty on ATL-28-J.Bethel, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.22 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 68, worth -3.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 26, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model