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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 23

Baltimore Ravens 23 – Cincinnati Bengals 34

What Actually Happened

(:08) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 83-W.Snead IV to CIN 12 for 11 yards (94-S.Hubbard).

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +1.70 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 23, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +2.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.01 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 33, worth -0.05 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +2.05 EP