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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 22

Cincinnati Bengals 31 – Baltimore Ravens 23

What Actually Happened

(2:29) 4-R.Bullock 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +2.45 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 22, worth -1.56 EP
KICK +0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.01 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 32, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -1.11 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model