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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 50

Cincinnati Bengals 28 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to BAL 13, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 84-J.Grant.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.63 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 50, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.34 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP