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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 44

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 28

What Actually Happened

(6:45) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 37-J.Allen to CIN 43 for 1 yard (21-D.Dennard) [96-C.Dunlap].

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.04 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 44, worth -2.36 EP
KICK -0.78 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model