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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 12 at the 65

Cincinnati Bengals 28 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(9:17) 10-K.Huber punts 44 yards to BAL 21, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 84-J.Grant.

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.71 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 65, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 23, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model