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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 20 at the 69

Cincinnati Bengals 28 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(13:44) 10-K.Huber punts 34 yards to BAL 35, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-42-C.Fejedelem.

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.97 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 69, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 27, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model