4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 62

Cincinnati Bengals 28 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 10-K.Huber punts 43 yards to BAL 19, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 84-J.Grant.

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.30 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 62, worth -3.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 21, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model