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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Baltimore Ravens
4th & 4 at the 38
Baltimore Ravens 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 28
What Actually Happened
(1:25) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete short left to 83-W.Snead IV.
The Three Options
GO
+0.74 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.64 EP
- 54% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 38, worth -1.76 EP
KICK
+0.16 EP
- 59% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
- 41% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT
-0.29 EP
- Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
