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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 75

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 4-S.Koch punts 55 yards to CIN 20, Center-46-M.Cox. 23-D.Phillips MUFFS catch, and recovers at CIN 15. 23-D.Phillips to CIN 31 for 16 yards (37-J.Allen).

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 75, worth -4.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -2.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 32, worth -2.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model