Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 14 at the 79

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

(4:06) 4-S.Koch punts 59 yards to CIN 20, Center-46-M.Cox. 23-D.Phillips to CIN 28 for 8 yards (40-K.Young).

The Three Options

GO -2.77 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
69% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 79, worth -4.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model