Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 78

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

(7:23) 5-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to MIN 30, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +0.86 EP
60% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 78, worth -4.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model