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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 9

Minnesota Vikings 24 – San Francisco 49ers 16

What Actually Happened

(:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
What Happened
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +1.68 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 9, worth +0.13 EP
KICK +2.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth +0.01 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +2.13 EP