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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 15 at the 60

San Francisco 49ers 16 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(5:54) 5-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to MIN 18, Center-86-K.Nelson. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 18 for no gain (31-R.Mostert).

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.41 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 60, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 19, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model