Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 74

Minnesota Vikings 24 – San Francisco 49ers 16

(7:16) 6-M.Wile punts 29 yards to SF 45, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
64% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model