Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 73

Minnesota Vikings 24 – San Francisco 49ers 13

(14:56) 6-M.Wile punts 56 yards to SF 17, Center-47-K.McDermott. 18-D.Pettis pushed ob at SF 31 for 14 yards (42-B.Gedeon).

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.87 EP
62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model