Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 19 at the 65

Minnesota Vikings 10 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(11:23) 6-M.Wile punts 47 yards to SF 18, Center-47-K.McDermott. 18-D.Pettis MUFFS catch, recovered by SF-23-A.Witherspoon at SF 18. 23-A.Witherspoon to SF 18 for no gain (24-H.Hill).

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.05 EP
75% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model