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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 74

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(14:24) 5-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to MIN 31, Center-86-K.Nelson. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 30 for -1 yards (31-R.Mostert).

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 74, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 32, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model