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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 57

Denver Broncos 7 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(:56) 1-M.King punts 52 yards to SEA 5, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.85 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 57, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 17, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP