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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 61

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(4:42) 4-M.Dickson punts 59 yards to DEN 2, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-23-N.Thorpe.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.89 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 61, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 20, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model