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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 39

Denver Broncos 27 – Seattle Seahawks 24

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 1-M.King punts 27 yards to SEA 12, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +0.75 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 39, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 48, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.91 EP