Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 14 at the 82

Seattle Seahawks 24 – Denver Broncos 27

(3:40) 4-M.Dickson punts 63 yards to DEN 19, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-28-J.Coleman.

The Three Options

GO -2.76 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.28 EP
71% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 82, worth -4.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model