Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 16 at the 70

Seattle Seahawks 24 – Denver Broncos 27

(8:38) 4-M.Dickson punts 57 yards to DEN 13, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.44 EP
74% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 70, worth -3.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model