Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 80

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(10:43) 4-M.Dickson punts 60 yards to DEN 20, Center-69-T.Ott. 24-A.Jones to DEN 44 for 24 yards (58-A.Calitro). PENALTY on DEN-40-K.Bierria, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 20.

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.58 EP
58% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 80, worth -4.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model