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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 63

Denver Broncos 17 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(3:51) 1-M.King punts 41 yards to SEA 22, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 20 for -2 yards (30-P.Lindsay).

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.28 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 63, worth -3.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model