Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 70

Denver Broncos 17 – Seattle Seahawks 10

(9:06) 1-M.King punts 53 yards to SEA 17, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 26 for 9 yards (43-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.17 EP
69% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 70, worth -3.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model