Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 61

Denver Broncos 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

(12:23) 1-M.King punts 45 yards to SEA 16, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-81-T.Patrick.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.84 EP
61% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 61, worth -3.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model