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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 75

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 4-M.Dickson punts 69 yards to DEN 6, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.97 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 75, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 32, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP