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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 28

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 11-S.Janikowski 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.24 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 28, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 38, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model