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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 17 at the 17

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(14:03) 11-S.Janikowski 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
  • 20% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.45 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 17, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 27, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model