Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 68

Pittsburgh Steelers 21 – Cleveland Browns 21

(1:37) 4-J.Berry punts 39 yards to CLE 29, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +0.79 EP
64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 68, worth -2.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model