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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Cleveland Browns
4th & 5 at the 18
Cleveland Browns 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 21
What Actually Happened
(7:49) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass incomplete deep left to 80-J.Landry.
The Three Options
GO
+1.48 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.97 EP
- 61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.77 EP
KICK
+1.46 EP
- 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
- 9% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT
-0.28 EP
- Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
