Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 89

Pittsburgh Steelers 21 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(8:52) 4-J.Berry punts 36 yards to PIT 47, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-21-S.Davis. Pittsburgh challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 08:42.)

The Three Options

GO -3.02 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.00 EP
67% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 89, worth -4.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model