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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 34

Pittsburgh Steelers 21 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(12:15) 4-J.Berry punts 22 yards to CLE 12, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.18 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 34, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.58 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 44, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP