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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 48

Cleveland Browns 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:11) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.40 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -1.15 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model