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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 47

Cleveland Browns 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 21

What Actually Happened

(3:35) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 33 yards to PIT 14, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.48 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.40 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model