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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 67

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(13:35) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 31 yards to CLE 36, Center-57-K.Canaday, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 67, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.62 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 25, worth -1.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP