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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 12 at the 80

Detroit Lions 7 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(7:09) 6-S.Martin punts 55 yards to NYJ 25, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 19-A.Roberts to DET 32 for 43 yards (6-S.Martin, 32-T.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.76 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 80, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 37, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model