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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 19

New York Jets 48 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(2:35) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 16-T.Pryor pushed ob at DET 2 for 17 yards (24-N.Lawson).

The Three Options

GO +1.63 EP
What Happened
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.27 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 19, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 29, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model