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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 32

New York Jets 48 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(4:19) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 40-T.Cannon ran ob at DET 26 for 6 yards.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.55 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 32, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
  • 75% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 42, worth -1.58 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model