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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 35

Detroit Lions 17 – New York Jets 48

What Actually Happened

(6:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Cassel pass short right intended for 19-K.Golladay INTERCEPTED by 33-J.Adams at NYJ 22. 33-J.Adams to DET 40 for 38 yards (68-T.Decker).

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.55 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 35, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.49 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 45, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model