Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 74

Detroit Lions 17 – New York Jets 31

What Actually Happened

(7:20) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to NYJ 22, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 19-A.Roberts for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.73 EP
62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 74, worth -4.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model