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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 3

Detroit Lions 7 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(:15) 5-M.Prater 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +3.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.84 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 3, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +2.84 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.89 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.07 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP