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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 21

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(:25) 6-C.Sturgis 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

The Three Options

GO +2.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.86 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 31, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP