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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 12 at the 64

Kansas City Chiefs 38 – Los Angeles Chargers 28

What Actually Happened

(:50) 2-D.Colquitt punts 44 yards to LAC 20, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC.

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +0.44 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 64, worth -2.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 22, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model